Reference
Abstract
In safety-critical applications a probabilistic model is usually required to be cali brated, i.e., to capture the uncertainty of its predictions accurately. In multi-class
classification, calibration of the most confident predictions only is often not suffi cient. We propose and study calibration measures for multi-class classification that
generalize existing measures such as the expected calibration error, the maximum
calibration error, and the maximum mean calibration error. We propose and evalu ate empirically different consistent and unbiased estimators for a specific class of
measures based on matrix-valued kernels. Importantly, these estimators can be in terpreted as test statistics associated with well-defined bounds and approximations
of the p-value under the null hypothesis that the model is calibrated, significantly
improving the interpretability of calibration measures, which otherwise lack any
meaningful unit or scale.